Mind games: New study delves into the decision-making of football players during a game

Here's a quick experiment. Take a look at this clip from one of my matches last season. What choice would you have made in this position? Would you have played a pass forward into the midfielder? Would you have laid it off to the center back? Would you have switched play into the winger? Or would you have looked for a ball in behind for the striker to chase? All of these options are completely viable, but in this situation, our player seemingly made the wrong decision. Chances are, while you may have considered at least one of these options, you definitely won't have seen them all. And every single second that passes, new opportunities are created or lost. When it comes to making a decision and trying to gain an advantage over the opponent, countless factors are influencing this player's thought process, from the position of the opponent's to the tactics covered during training. But as observers, it's seemingly impossible to decipher everything that is happening in the mind of the player. So how can we understand what this player is thinking in order to beat his opponent? A recent PhD study aimed to answer this question, and by interviewing professional footballers, they identified four key elements that play a vital role in a player's decision-making process. No matter the sport, decision-making is a fundamental skill that all elite athletes need to possess. While research on this topic has grown substantially over the past few decades, there's still limited insight from expert players' own perspective about what exactly influences a player's decision. Initial research used video-based experiments, similar to what we saw at the start of the video, where athletes were shown clips of match or training footage that would pause at certain points, with the participants then needing to say what they would do next. However, the results of these studies proved to be inconsistent with in-situ experiments, noting how the player's gaze behavior was different in the two types of setting. Essentially, it was clear that players scanned their environment, but there was little information on how players used this information to set up a situation that allowed them to gain an advantage. To understand why, I travelled back to my old university in Portsmouth, where a recent study led by Dr. Harry Ramsey, now a lecturer in skill acquisition, aimed to fill in the gap in the literature. In their research, 15 current professional football players who have competed for their national team, either at senior or the way to under-17 level, were interviewed on what they thought good decision-making was, and how they modified their behavior in order to gain an advantage over the opponent. The first theme that emerged was the idea of being unpredictable. So a number of the players actually referred to trying to make their actions unpredictable, or just in general, trying to be unpredictable, so that their opponent didn't find it easy to know what they were going to do. Players also referred to being unpredictable on a more tactical level. An example of this that one of the players highlighted would be, if a winger receives the ball on the touch line, maybe the first three times in a row in a game they received the ball in that situation, they would just do a simple pass back inside the pitch, and then on the fourth scenario, they would see that their fullback has anticipated they were going to make that same pass back inside the pitch again, and make it look like they were going to do that pass, but then actually turn and exploit the space vacated by the defender and dribble down the line. So the player here isn't trying to gain an advantage or take on the player every time they receive the ball, but they're trying to set up a situation kind of over a series of actions where they can gain a bigger advantage over their fullback and create a better chance for their team. This idea of unpredictability is extremely evident at the elite level. Creative dribbles such as Bergkamp's famous goal or sneaky free kicks under the wall that led to a whole change in how teams look to defend set pieces. Players like Vinicius Jr thrive on their ability to create opportunities by constantly changing the types of runs and dribbles that they make, depending on the situation that they find themselves in. But for a player to trick the opponent, they first need to create the right situation and generate the correct option. So this theme is all about how players actively generate options and then how they select between those options that are available to them. Several players highlighted that they would actively influence others around them in order to generate the options available to them. So a number of players highlighted how they did this by when they were in possession of the ball. Maybe they would take a few more touches to try and entice the opposition players out of their positional structure. And then that would free up space for one of their teammates to receive the ball in a more advanced position. So they would actively generate the options available to them by drawing others out of their position. A good example of this concept can be seen from a player like Ruben Dias and Man City, often waiting on the ball for the opponent to close him down and creating a gap in behind for the midfielder to receive the ball in more space. This finding emphasizes that the opportunities available to a player are not all present at the same time. And as a player performs an action on the ball, their teammates and opponents move in response, which in turn creates new information. The most important aspect from this theme was that the professional players were generally aware of their technical skillset and then would aim to make decisions or perform actions that would align with their own unique skillset. In the case of a ball-playing centre-back, for example, if we take the two Crystal Palace centre-backs, so first we have Joachim Andersen. He has that amazing ability to hit a 50-yard diagonal pass to the wingers. And then next to him, we have Mark Guehi, who doesn't necessarily have that same 50-yard pass ability, but he is really good at carrying the ball, driving with the ball into midfield. So in the same position on the pitch, these two players might perform a different action that aligns with their own unique skillset. So we get to the professional level and to be successful at the professional level. Don't necessarily need to have the biggest skillset, but if you're able to make decisions that align with your own skillset, you can be a really good decision-maker and then a really good player and really valuable to your team. From personal experience, this is one of the hardest things to get youth players and semi-professionals to understand, is that while they might be good at one thing, they're certainly not the best at everything. And so as a coach, helping your players understand what their best qualities are can certainly help them become much better players. Playing to one's strength is certainly a vital skill to possess, but for a player to be able to do this, they first need to be able to anticipate and read the game. One way they can do this is by scanning the environment. So this theme was all about having the ability to read your direct opponent, as well as having an ability to read the game as a whole. In line with the beliefs of professional coaches and researchers, the players highlighted the importance of scanning for supporting their decision-making. Scanning can also potentially help to make a player more unpredictable, as if they have more options available to them, it might be harder for an opponent to be able to read what they're likely to do. Whereas if the player didn't scan and they only have one option available, which then could be a simple bounce pass backwards, it could lead them to be a pressing target for the opposition. By constantly observing the environment and taking in new information, it allows players to gain a much better understanding of their surroundings. For example, take this clip, notice the midfielder constantly looking around his environment, noticing he has space to receive the ball and gain ground. From this position, he is then able to create a dangerous opportunity by playing to his strengths. In this situation, however, we notice how the midfielder doesn't observe his surroundings and is focused on his teammate on the ball. As a result of not scanning, he's unaware that he's completely surrounded and tries to dribble rather than a simple layoff. Simply by watching world-class midfielders like Kevin de Bruyne, you can see how often they are observing the game that is unfolding around them, allowing them to have more options and make the right choice for the team. Finally, the last key theme of the paper referred to a player's decision to control and dictate the game. The general idea within this theme is that good decision-making appears to go beyond what is currently studied within the literature, where players aim to not only make good decisions that benefit their team and allow them to gain an advantage over their opponent, but where they make decisions that allow them to dictate the flow and the rhythm of the game. So one player in particular, a central midfield player, highlighted how one of his main roles was to dictate the flow of the game. So this could be knowing when to speed up periods of possession to create an attack, and knowing when to slow down periods of possession to just retain the ball. So the ability to dictate the flow of the game allows a team to apply their own playing principles to the game, which in theory should give them the best opportunity of being successful against their opponent. The main idea behind this is that when a team is in control of the ball, it allows the players to stick to their principles and focus on the game. And so the decision to reset the attack and adjust the tempo of the game can be an excellent way of getting the whole team on the same page. An example of how managers want to control the game can be seen in a manager like Roberto De Zerbi at Brighton. Brighton are a team that will comfortably complete 10 to 15 passes in their own box, dragging the opposition out of position and allowing their players to stick to their principles and control the game from buildup. This finding is also in line with current research on team dynamics and work being done on trying to better understand how a team can control the game. Data scientists have modelled team dynamics and created pitch control models to capture how teams control and dictate the game to determine if this is a factor that underpins their success. So for example, a team's ability to go from a slow buildup to a fast buildup might underpin their ability to successfully break down the opposition's defense and create goal scoring opportunities. So what exactly can we learn from these findings? By using this research, we can essentially piece together a timeline of what goes into an informed decision. Firstly, good decisions are made when the players have a good understanding of their environment. And so scanning and being aware of their surroundings is crucial. Secondly, a player should do what's best for their specific skill set. If a player is more comfortable playing shorter passes, then their decisions should lead them to a position where they can best exploit this quality. Thirdly, if a player makes their game as unpredictable as possible by constantly changing what runs and passes they make, it will give the opposing team a much harder job trying to anticipate the player's movements. Finally, a player should aim to make the choice that allows the team to gain control of the match. After moments of end-to-end football, resetting the player and allowing the team to stick to their game plan can be an excellent choice that benefits the whole team. But I'm curious to know how you help your players make informed decisions. Leave your thoughts in the comments down below. Thank you to the University of Portsmouth and Dr. Harry Ramsey for giving me the opportunity to explore groundbreaking research in the world of football. If you want to know more about the research that we covered in today's video, then there are links to everything in the description down below. If scientific research and the best coaching methods is something you're interested in, then make sure to subscribe to the channel so you never miss an update. Thanks for watching.